In a recent paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Filipe Campante and David Yanagizawa-Drott look at the affect of religion on economic growth and happiness. They look at observance of Ramadan fasting and exploit variation in the length of daily fasting due to the interaction of the Islamic calendar and a country's latitude. They find that longer Ramadan fasting has a negative effect on output growth in Muslim countries, but that longer Ramadan fasting increases subjective well-being. In other words, some religious practices may make the individual feel better, but may be bad for the overall economy.
For me, this paper raises several interesting questions for economists. First, do all religious practices have this effect? For example, Sabbath or Holy day observance. Second, can religion positively affect both economic growth and happiness? Third, might there be differences amongst religions - with some having no effect, others negative-positive, others negative-negative or positive-positive?
Coming to the last weekend of personal income tax e-filing (if without any extension period), here is the updated list of various tax relief granted for your reference. Not much changes from YA2013, except on the following items:
Recently, I received an urgent note from a student who is doing matriculation in a Government school in Kedah where tuition and accommodation costs are covered by the state. I have been helping her with financial assistance for food and miscellaneous expenses since her father is unemployed and she is a deserving student from the poorer class.
Her letter reads as follows:
hi sir it's me …. sorry for disturbing sir. sir i want to ask sir something. sir i really need sir's help. sir if can sir can bank in some of the money before i further my studies in matriculation.
sir i need to buy something as preparation to further my studies in matriculation sir. so please help me sir. i really dont know who to ask help. that why i am asking sir's help. please sir. i hope sir can help me because i dont know who to ask. sir i hope sir can understand me and give me some support. thank you sir. i hope sir will reply my letter as soon as possible. thank you a lot sir.
I have shared this letter with friends not simply to provide an example of the extent of financial desperation and need that hundreds of thousands of poor students in our country face everyday in their lives.
I am also sharing it to show my concern with the standard of English proficiency of our younger generation who are going to colleges and universities. This is not an isolated example. I am sad to say that the overwhelming majority of the students that I am presently supporting have equally low standards of the English language.
These students represent the better ones among their class mates in school. I shudder to think of the standard of English proficiency of the average students in our secondary schools.
How are these students, when they pass through college or university, able to compete in an increasingly globalized employment market? How are they going to function in the private sector or the business world when they cannot express themselves in basic simple English? And what is the quality of the service or communication they will provide when they eventually find jobs?
The main culprit for this phenomenon of our present younger generation of poorly educated - unable to communicate in simple English without making grammatical mistakes - is the Government.
Barisan National has been in power for over 50 years and sorry to say, it has put the country's educational system in the longkang!
The Ministry of Education has been the biggest ministry for a long time and receives one of the largest if not largest budgets. But it appears as if donkeys and meter readers are in charge of the Ministry. Millions of students pass through our national education system and many receive high grades and the Ministry's stamp of approval. The standard of education, however, is so low that these students are virtually unemployable despite their impressive certificates.
And this is why I fear for the worse for the present batch of students that I and others have supported! Poor and deserving yes; but they have been screwed up by our rotten education system
The Government is not the only culprit. There are others culprit in our educational tragedy. I also blame the private sector educationists. There are far too many universities and colleges. Most are owned by business men whose main aim is to make profit. When I read a newspaper article commending a educationist businessman for his noble contribution to the country through his educational institution, I cannot resist a big laugh.
Most of our educationists are pure entrepreneurs. Some want to make a fast buck. Others will be prepared to take their time. More than a few are crooked or unscrupulous and are prepared to lower standards to rock bottom so that as many students as possible can enrol in their institutions.
At the same time, many private sector higher education institutions are charging ridiculously high tuition fees so that the cost of private higher education is getting out of hand and unaffordable to the lower and middle class.
Unfortunately the Higher Education Report which was released by the Government a few days ago is clueless on the concerns raised here.
There has been much debate recently about the contents of undergraduate economics degrees - see, for example, the coreecon project. Below is an FT video on teaching real-world economics to undergraduates.
How to interpret company announcements on Bursa Malaysia
Koon Yew Yin
As you know, there are daily many share recommendations from professional analysts employed by Financial Institutions. You must be careful when you read these articles because their main objective is to generate more trading business for their employers. Even if you are convinced in any particular counter, you must always check it up for its profit growth prospect from its Bursa announcements.
My one golden rule in share selection is that I must be sure the company can make more profit in the current year than last year because if the company announces poor annual profit, the share price will tumble down. Even if it is cheap in terms of NTA and P/E ratio, It will continue to come down until it shows increasing profit.
According to Malaysian Securities Commission’ rules all listed companies have to make announcements of their quarterly results and other business activities that are unusual to their daily business operations.
I would like to share with you my experience on how to interpret and take advantage of the various announcements as follows:
Announcement of quarterly result: this is often a catalyst to move share price. If the profit is good, the share price will go up but if the profit is not good the price will likely come down.
Announcement of purchasing a large piece of land for development eg MRCB’s recent announcement of signing the S&P agreement to buy the Germen Embassy land in KL for a few hundred million Ringgit. Many investors would think that it is a wonderful deal to be able to own and develop the property right in the heart of KL. But smart investors with some imagination must consider this purchase very risky in view of the oversupply of properties in KL. Moreover, it will take about 7 years to complete the project from planning approval to construction and sale of all the properties before you can see the financial result. At the mean time, investors are exposed to 7 years of risk.
Announcement of company share buyback is tricky to interpret. It can mean that the management wants to buy back its own shares because it is undervalued. But sometimes the management wants to prop up the price to stop the price from falling because of poor quarterly result. Investors must look at the profit growth first before buying the share. You may be tempted to buy because the chart says so. Share prices can be manipulated if the daily trading volume is small.
Announcement of right issues with free convertible warrants can be tempting to many investors. You must be careful to examine the true reason for calling the right issues. Do not subscribe blindly. Quite often due to poor management, the company has poor cash flow and the business has too many challenges. As a result, the company needs more cash. Moreover, this kind of announcement will push up the share price, offering you a chance to sell at a better price. You must remember that good profitable companies do not need to get money from calling for right issues.
Announcement of bonus issues is usually a good sign that the company is able to accumulate sufficient profit to issue more shares to benefit shareholders. This announcement will push up the share price. Of course the price will be adjusted soon after the bonus issue and the price will go up again if the company continues to show good result.
Announcement of share placement of not more than 10% of the total issued shares is a good sign that there is demand by fund managers to own these shares. If they buy them from the open market, it will cost more. This is reassuring to all existing shareholders because the big buyers would have studied the operation of the company in great detail before making such a big financial commitment. They should not think that their interest is being diluted. They must bear in mind that the company will have more cash for expansion which will benefit all the shareholders.
Announcement of a new substantial shareholder who bought all his shares from the open market is a good sign. According to S.C. rules, any investor who owns more than 5% of the total issued shares has to declare his interest. He has also to announce if he subsequently buys or sell the shares because his action will affect the decision making process of other investors.
Announcement of Company Directors’ buying or selling shares is a good indicator of the true value of the shares. All company directors have to make announcement when they buy or sell their shares. If they continue to buy more shares, it is a healthy sign, provided you know that the company is really doing well and that they are not buying them to simply push up the share price.
Announcement by a contractor of securing a large multi million Ringgit contract for the construction of a big project through the open competitive tender system will often encourage investors to rush in to buy the shares in anticipation of the company’s profit growth prospect. Many would think that the contractor with additional work would naturally make more profit. You must remember contracting is a very risky business because of the open tender system. The contractor has to take a lot of risk to submit the cheapest price to win the tender. That is why there are so few really successful listed contracting companies. Very often building contractors are also property developers.
Announcement of dividend is a good indicator of the company’s performance. The company that declares increasing dividend is definitely a good company. This shows that it has positive cash flow and can afford to benefit all its shareholders. This sort of company will not need to call for right issues to raise cash for expansion.
Announcement of privatization of the listed company is rare but when you see this type of announcement, you can make money if you know how to position yourself. The controlling shareholders offer to buy up all the outstanding shares that they do not already own, usually at a higher price than the current market price. As soon as you see the announcement, you can buy it before the price go up to the offered price. If you consider the offer is unreasonable, you can wait until they offer a better price. You must bear in mind that the better offer may not come and it may be more advantage to accept the cash offer and use the cash proceeds to buy other shares.
Conclusion: There are about 1200 listed companies and every day many of them have to make announcements. It is impossible to read all the announcements. After you have read the above guidelines, you can select the useful announcements to read to save time.
Under the current oversupply of real estate, I will not read announcements by building contractors and property developers because property prices can only come down.
I am not interested to know about huge land transactions and its profit potential.
I will also not read companies that have poor profit growth prospect. That includes plantation counters in view of the depressed palm oil price, even though some of them are selling cheaply in terms of P/E ratio and NTA.
As you know, our Ringgit is the lowest in the last 5 years and readers should look at announcements by companies exporting their products for US$.
After EPF announcing that they would like to propose 4 new initiatives to improve the current scheme, many Malaysian voiced their concern especially on the withdrawal age. What are these initiatives actually? How is going to affect us? And, most importantly, is it a good or bad move?
From 21st April till 5th May (two weeks only), EPF members are encouraged to participate in the survey being conducted by the board via their EPF i-Akaun such as below.
If the full withdrawal age changes to 60, how would it be done? Let's look at the diagram below:-
Questions to be ponder upon:
Can we partially agree with certain initiative, such as ONLY on extending dividend payments up to age 100? Or, must it be come in a package of 4 initiatives?
By increasing the FULL withdrawal age to 60, is it good for members? Or, is it actually good for EPF to hold on to the money for a longer period?
It's good to have another syariah-compliant retirement fund for members to choose. As such, there will be two type of returns (conventional vs syariah). Would it be difficult for EPF to manage members expectations? Can members switch between these two funds anytime?
Or, is this what majority of us want?
Remember to give your feedback as soon via EPF i-Akaun before 5th May 2015.
I do not have the time nor the resources or the inclination to dwell laboriously on the viability of Iskandar. Looking at the geography and proximity to Singapore, one should view Iskandar as a proxy play to Singapore's ascend up the value chain. Their lack of land is exactly what will ensure the long term viability for Iskandar. However the ride to the pot of gold will not be smooth. As there is not a strong central coordinating body, land is transacted as often and as willingly possible. When there is not central planning (I know there is one but toothless when it comes to the release and development schedule) body that is effective in controlling the supply and demand, it will be rough going. As Singapore has to contend with its own woes in pockets of luxury housing (e.g. Sentosa), interest will be tepid. The aggressive projects by Chinese companies will also be a big headache. Having said that, there will come a time where the ringgit is so attractively priced or the Singapore dollar is so strong, or that Singapore property is so strong ... that eventually Iskandar will look attractive. In the meantime, the only kind of properties I think will be attractive will industrial in Iskandar or those than pander to Singapore SMEs wanting, needing or forced to relocate to Johor.
--------------------------------------------
The existing glut of homes in Iskandar will be aggravated by a huge incoming supply this year and the next, which would put property values under greater pressure over the medium term, a research report by Malaysia’s largest bank showed.
Advising investors to be cautious about the region, the Maybank report said that Klang Valley and Penang were better bets. Klang Valley, in particular, is preferred because of the upcoming rapid transit lines, and the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail project that will end at Bandar Malaysia. More importantly, Greater KL and Klang Valley has a strong population growth potential — a possible 40 per cent increase to 10 million by 2020 — that offers more sustainable demand for properties, it added.
The report pointed out that the value of property transactions in Johor had fallen by 33 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of last year, underperforming the country (-7 per cent) and other major cities such as KL (-12 per cent) and Penang (8 per cent).
Property prices in Johor were also weaker than that of other cities, with the prices contracting 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, property prices in the whole of Malaysia dipped 0.2 per cent.
There are roughly 80,900 units of approved high-rise residences in Iskandar. Latest statistics from Malaysia’s National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) showed that as at the fourth quarter of last year, there were 142,567 homes under construction in the state of Johor, with another 193,271 units planned — among the highest in all of Malaysia.
The aggressive land-banking activities by Chinese developers could also worsen the glut and lead to price wars in the high-rise mixed-development segment, the report said.
“Without coordinated planning and control, this could aggravate the oversupply situation and induce price wars especially in the high-rise mixed development segment,” said Wong Wei Sum, an analyst with Maybank who wrote the research note.
The report also gave its assessment on some of the high-profile projects in Iskandar: At Guangzhou R&F Properties’ Princess Cove project, it noted that despite its prime location in the city centre of Johor Baru, the take-up for its phase 1 residential towers only rose slightly from 46 per cent in October last year to about 60 per cent currently.
Country Garden’s project in Johor Baru’s Danga Bay area is also about 60 per cent sold. A similar proportion of projects in Danga Bay by Greenland, a Chinese property developer, is booked. “Most of the buyers are Malaysians and the three Chinese developers (including Guangzhou R&F) are offering discounts/rebates ranging from 6 to 15 per cent, we were told,” Mr Wong said.
“We remain cautious over the increasingly crowded development space in Iskandar Malaysia and think the oversupply situation is likely to get worse... This will be aggravated by ample incoming supply by end-2015 and 2016 from units which were launched during Iskandar Malaysia’s peak time in 2012 and 2013.”
Property analysts said the concerns raised by Maybank about Iskandar are valid, especially at a time when demand for homes in the special economic region has started to wane, following the implementation of property cooling measures targeted at foreign buyers and tighter lending conditions by banks. If the oversupply situation is not managed well, the vibrancy of Iskandar will be affected with a large number of homes or even entire townships left vacant, the analysts said.
Colin Tan, director of research and consultancy at Suntec Real Estate Consultants, said: “By looking purely at the economics, the Iskandar story should succeed because so long as investments continue to come in, the place should be in a good state. The question is, ‘How long will it take?’ Iskandar’s progress seems to be held back by politics.”
- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/maybank-sounds-warning-on-iskandar-urges-caution#sthash.7zNXAIx0.dpuf p/s Gloria Emanuelle Widjaja is a breath of fresh air... so pretty, so lanky, so talented ... and only 21
Along with Graeme Acheson and Christopher Coyle, I've recently written a paper entitled "Happy Hour Followed by Hangover: Financing the UK Brewery Industry, 1880-1913". The QUCEH working paper version is available here. The paper examines the 'brewery bubble' which occurred in the UK in the late 1890s and early 1900s. This episode provides us with interesting insights for modern-day financial markets because many of the breweries issued debt finance to fund their purchase of their pub chains. This debt financing by the breweries resulted in a tripling and quadrupling of the prices of pubs. However, the pub bubble burst, resulting in the ruination of many breweries and huge losses for investors. Here is the paper's abstract:
In the last 15 years of the nineteenth century c.300 British brewers incorporated and floated securities on the stock market. Subsequently, in the 1900s, the industry suffered a long-lived hangover. In this paper, we establish the stylised facts of this transformation and estimate the gains enjoyed by brewery investors during the boom as well as the losses suffered by investors during the bust of the 1900s. However, not all brewery equity shares suffered alike. We find that post-1900 performance correlates positively with capital-market discipline and good corporate governance and negatively with family control, but does not correlate with indebtedness.
Another very good initiative by the Employee Provident Fund (EPF), a new online portal was launched today to provide the necessary information for all EPF members who conduct their own research and survey on all unit trust funds that were offered under the EPF Members-Investment Scheme (EPF-MIS). Most importantly, it's FREE !!!
The portal named "EPF Members Investment Scheme Information Portal" is managed by an external party and it is accessible as long as the member have an EPF i-Akaun log in.
Then, you will be directed to the new portal where all of us waiting for...
What's in it for me?
Powered by novagni, the new portal is user friendly and useful for all EPF members...
Fund performances of different funds sorted by different category. You can only compare the funds within the same category.
You can view the fund info by such as general fund info, transaction info, and statistic of the funds including the history of distributions...
Different funds comparison of up to a maximum of 4 funds at one shot...
Honestly, we should give the EPF a thumbs up for this. The initiative taken to have the i-Akaun log in was amazing few years back. Coupled with this new portal for all i-Akaun users is an extra milestone for other government related agencies to follow. Let's give EPF a "Like" here and "Share" it out all Malaysian as an encouragement to EPF...
To read the FAQs about the new portal, please click here.
Meet Joe Ades, better known in the internet world as the world's best salesman. His amazing story was that he sells $5 peelers since 1993. Naturally he made money, but he made more than enough to be living at Park Avenue, New York. So what's so different with him ... he is tenacious, and yes he has a great product to start with but by no means a MUST HAVE product. I think he deliberately priced it low at $5 so that it becomes an impulse buy, and he knows how to push those buttons for an impulse buy - "eh... its not going to break my bank or budget for the week", "seriously it looks damn useful, even if it breaks off after one week, its still just $5 only", ... He looks spiffy too, always in his suit. Might be overdressed for his job but thats his knack: by over-dressing, he attracts attention; by being in a suit, there is a sense of professionalism than say somebody trying to sell you things off the back of a truck; and he stays in the mode and worked in the same areas day in day out - so much so that even if you ignore and walk around him for months, you'd still somehow wonder what the heck can this guy be selling day in day out, curiosity not only kills the cat, it has a stranglehold on all shoppers. After the breakup of his third marriage, and a period of residence in Ireland, Ades followed his daughter to New York City,[3] taking up residence in Manhattan.[1]
From 1993 onward, Ades sold $5 Swiss-made metal potato peelers.[4] Known for his engaging sales patter and demonstrations in places such as Union Square Greenmarket, while wearing $1,000 Chester Barrie suits and shirts from Turnbull & Asser.[1] Ades never bothered with a license, meaning that he was often moved on by the New York City Police Department.[1] His pitches and lifestyle eventually meant that he became so famous that he was the subject of a Vanity Fair article series.[5]
Ades sold enough peelers to enjoy café society at the Pierre Hotel, on the Upper East Side, and lived with his fourth wife, Estelle Pascoe–November 17, 2007)[6] in her three-bedroom apartment on Park Avenue.[7]
“ Never underestimate a small amount of money gathered by hand for 60 years ”
Unfortunately, he (Joe Ades) passed away February 1st 2009, only one day after learning he had finally been granted American citizenship. Now his daughter does the same. He worked hard enough selling this that he was able to pay for a three-bedroom apartment on Park Ave. in NYC . Ades died on February 1, 2009,[3] only a day after being informed that he had been granted American citizenship.[1]
Most of the Malaysian who study local universities will borrow from the National Higher Education Fund Corporation (PTPTN). Meaning all of those undergraduates are actually indebted when they further their tertiary studies. Well, this is consider a good debt instead if you finished your study and get a good job to repay back the loan later.
However, statistic shows that many of those graduates defaulted their PTPTN loan after graduating from universities. Few years back, government even reduces the loan interest from 3% to 1% p.a. but yet still no improvement. How about 20% discount if you settled off your loan in one lump sum?
Still not enough...
Another good news to PTPTN loan borrowers, government is introducing the new repayment term called "Income Contingent Loan", which allows borrowers to delay their repayments until they reach a certain level of income. Currently, loan borrowers have to start their repayments 6 months after finishing their study.
How much is the income threshold ?
This is the most crucial question after the announcement. So far, we still don't have the answer yet. And, this will definitely benefiting those low income graduates.
The Lucky Sperm Syndrome Do family-owned companies make good investments? http://www.bfm.my/sm-salvatore-dali-malaysiafinance-the-lucky-sperm-syndrome-2015-04-08.html Song Pick: Younger people may only know Rod Stewart as a crooner of American Standards, but in actual fact, he has had a fantastic career in rock and roll. One of his best albums ever has to be ANight On Town, and the best song from it The Killing Of Georgie.
Who doesn't love the song American Pie by Don Mclean? Yet we all have differing versions of the meaning of the 'insurmountable' lyrics. You may begin to have a better than educated guess if you had a close affinity with American popular culture from the 50s till the 70s - otherwise it would be lost on you, much as it did for the Brits (in a stiff upper lip accent "what in God's name is he singing"). Well if you have a couple of million dollars, you could bid for the entire manuscript (16 pages) which would resolve most of the lyrics behind the composer's thoughts. Below was the great article from BBC. ---------------------------------------------------- BBC News: As the original manuscript for Don Mclean's 1971 classic goes up for auction, fans may finally discover what the "Song of the Century" is really about. So what are the popular theories?
When people ask Don McLean what does American Pie really mean, he likes to reply: "It means I never have to work again."
His eight-minute-long "rock and roll American dream" became an anthem for an entire generation - who memorised every line.
Their children in turn grew up singing it - fascinated by the mysterious lyrics with their cryptic references to 50s innocence, the turbulent 60s, and 70s disillusion.
Who broke the church bells? Who was the jester who sang for the king and queen? And what really was revealed "the day the music died"?
American Pie is the longest song ever to top the Billboard Hot 100, at eight minutes and 36 seconds
These 16 pages of handwritten notes, which have lain hidden away in a box in his home for 43 years, are expected to fetch $1.5m (£1m) at Christie's in New York.
But for McLean aficionados there is a greater prize.
The drafts, unedited, reveal the creative process behind American Pie "from beginning to end", according to Tom Lecky of Christie's.
"You see great moments of inspiration, you see him attempting things that then didn't work out. The direction that he was going in that he then didn't want to follow.
"Those words that we all know so well weren't fixed in the beginning."
McLean's original notes, unedited, are 16 pages long and give clues to his thought process
For McLean scholars with pet theories, there could be bad news on the doorstep. This could be the day that they die.
But before we sing bye bye, and in honour of the American Pie fans everywhere, the BBC News Magazine takes a nostalgic trip back through the song's six enigmatic verses, and the popular theories that have grown up around them.
"So bye-bye, Miss American Pie..."
Buddy Holly's death was a "personal tragedy" for the 12-year-old McLean
Contrary to popular rumour, "American Pie" was not the name of the plane that rock and roll legend Buddy Holly died in, says Jim Fann, author of Understanding American Pie.
Miss American Pie is "as American as apple pie, so the saying goes," he argues.
"She could also be a synthesis of this symbol and the beauty queen Miss America."
Either way, her name evokes a simpler, optimistic age and McLean bids her farewell.
"The day the music died" refers - of course - to Holly's untimely death on 3 February 1959, which McLean mourns as the end of the entire 50s era.
But if you think this is "what American Pie is about", you would greatly disappoint McLean, who is on record that his song has so much more to say in the verses that follow next. "Do you believe in rock and roll? Can music save your mortal soul?"
Into verse two and the swinging 60s have arrived. "Faith in the music now replaces faith in God," Fann observes.
The religious imagery that emerges in the second verse becomes a powerful and recurring symbol of loss throughout the song.
From "the sacred store" to the broken church bells, from this point forward, "whatever is couched in religious terms can be seen as referring back... to the happier innocence and faith of the 1950s," says Fann.
The fickle girl who McLean saw "dancing in the gym" no longer cares for his "pink carnation and pickup truck", leaving him "out of luck".
"When the jester sang for the King and Queen, In a coat he borrowed from James Dean"
Enter Bob Dylan, the court jester who becomes the revolutionary leader of the 60s generation, knocking Elvis, the king of the 50s, off his pedestal: "While the King was looking down, the jester stole his thorny crown."
The jacket Dylan "borrowed from James Dean" can be seen on the iconic cover sleeve of his 1963 album The Freewheelin' Bob Dylan.
But by the end of the decade, we see that Dylan's "rolling stone" is gathering moss, in fat quantities.
"The old cliche is turned on its head, reflecting how the wholesale rejection of conventional values had become commonplace by 1970," as Fann interprets.
But if you think the case is closed on the true meanings in this third verse, think again - "no verdict" has been returned.
Another has the monarchs as President John F Kennedy and the First Lady Jackie Kennedy, with Lee Harvey Oswald as the "jester who stole his thorny crown".
Whichever way you peer at it, "the world [McLean] once knew is changing," concludes Fann.
"Now the half-time air was sweet perfume, While sergeants played a marching tune"
As the 60s reach their turbulent climax in verse four, and nuclear tensions rising, the Beatles have become the "sergeants" leading the march of counter-culture, leaving Dylan behind as "the jester on the sidelines in a cast" after his near-fatal motorbike crash.
But just at the peak of the sweetly marijuana-perfumed Summer of Love in 1967, the tension boils over into civil unrest. "We all got up to dance, but we never got the chance," sang McLean.
He looks on as the "players try to take the field; But the marching band refused to yield".
There are almost as many theories for this line as the single has sold copies (more than three million in its first year). One has the marching band as the police blocking civil rights protesters, another as the Beatles preaching non-violence with their 1967 hit "All You Need Is Love".
"Do you recall what was revealed the day the music died?" This could be the song's most ambiguous line of all.
Some suggest it refers to a John Lennon and Yoko Ono album cover. Another popular theory is the Miss America contest of 1968 where feminist protesters had supposedly "burned their bras".
But the most likely reference, Fann believes, is the 1968 riot at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where police brutally cracked down on demonstrators.
What was revealed? "The dark underside of one of our most cherished institutions," he argues.
But perhaps "what was revealed" has nothing really to do with any of these events, and is really a harbinger for the tragedy that follows in the fifth verse...
"And there we were all in one place, A generation Lost in Space"
A giant gathering of people, all high on drugs. It has to be Woodstock, right? Not so, say Pie connoisseurs.
The lyrics more closely match the tragic concert at Altamont Speedway in December 1969, where "Jack Flash sat on a candlestick".
An estimated 300,000 revellers came to Altamont to see the Rolling Stones and Jefferson Airplane
"No angel born in hell could break that Satan's spell"
The Stones' frontman Mick Jagger really did appear on stage that night dressed in a flowing red cape, singing lyrics inciting fire and rebellion.
Meanwhile at the stage perimeter members of the Hells Angels motorcycle gang - hired as security - engaged in bloody clashes with the rioting audience.
Jagger was later accused of failing to halt the performance, infuriating McLean's narrator: "I saw Satan laughing with delight; The day the music died".Just as Woodstock was heralded as the landmark of the counterculture movement, "Altamont was the event that signalled its demise. Reality steps in," says Fann.
The tragedy served to finally "burst the bubble of youth culture's illusions about itself," wrote Todd Gitlin, an eyewitness, in his book The Sixties: Years of Hope, Days of Rage.
And in the final verse of McLean's parable, when he "goes down to the sacred store, where I'd heard the music years before" he finds that sadly:
"The man there said the music wouldn't play"
And these words are not just symbolic. "Literally, the music stores that had once provided listening booths for their customers were by this time no longer offering this service," writes Fann.
But even more so, "the cynicism of this generation had annihilated the innocent world the narrator had grown up in."
That kind of music simply wouldn't play any more.
Forty-three years later, it would be nice to think that - whatever the revelations to come from McLean's original scribbled notes - they will not burst the bubble for the millions of fans who still dream of Chevys, whisky and rye.
Don McLean: "You will find many interpretations of my lyrics, but none by me. Isn't this fun?"
